The circumstances surrounding his medical care remain fluid. But the larger issue is not. Khan remains imprisoned amid a broader erosion of civilian and democratic institutions and the extraordinary political power exercised by Pakistan’s military establishment.

Three years behind bars have not diminished Imran Khan’s political influence; if anything, his imprisonment has turned him into the central challenge to Pakistan’s political and military establishment

Ashish K Singh

There is a simple question behind Pakistan’s continuing political crisis: if Imran Khan is as politically finished as the government and military establishment suggest, why is he still in jail?

Khan has been imprisoned since August 2023 and remains at Adiala Jail, despite several of the cases that once threatened to keep him behind bars having been overturned, suspended or otherwise weakened. He is still facing a formidable collection of legal cases, however, including corruption-related convictions. The most consequential is the Al-Qadir Trust case, in which Khan and his wife were sentenced in 2025 to 14 years in prison. Khan denies wrongdoing and says the prosecutions are politically motivated.

That is the legal explanation. The political explanation is more revealing.

Khan is not in prison simply because he is a convicted former prime minister. He is in prison because he remains the most formidable political challenger to Pakistan’s existing power structure.

His popularity was demonstrated dramatically in the February 2024 general election. Although Khan was behind bars and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) was prevented from contesting under its party symbol, candidates backed by the party won the largest number of directly elected National Assembly seats. The result forced a coalition of rival political parties to form the government.

That election exposed the central weakness of the present arrangement: it can keep Khan away from power, but it has struggled to remove him from the political imagination of Pakistan.

The latest controversy concerns Khan’s health.

His family and PTI have raised serious concerns about his medical condition, particularly problems with his right eye. Khan has been diagnosed with central retinal vein occlusion, and his lawyers have argued that he requires specialist treatment. Jail authorities, meanwhile, have maintained that his condition has improved and that he is receiving adequate medical care.

The episode illustrates why Khan remains such a sensitive figure: even a hospital visit can become a political mobilisation point.

The current political order has survived partly because its most popular opponent has been physically removed from the political arena. His release would give PTI a leader capable of addressing supporters directly, organising protests and potentially challenging the government through elections.

More importantly, Khan’s confrontation is not merely with one political party. It is with a wider establishment that has traditionally exercised enormous influence over Pakistan’s political system.

Khan’s relationship with the military was once close. His rise to power in 2018 was widely seen as having benefited from military support. But the relationship collapsed spectacularly before his removal from office in April 2022. Since then, Khan has transformed himself into perhaps the strongest civilian critic of the establishment.

For the military establishment, therefore, the issue is not simply whether Khan becomes prime minister again. It is whether a politician who has openly challenged its political role can return to the centre of Pakistani politics.

The present government therefore has a legitimacy problem. It may possess parliamentary power, but parliamentary power and popular legitimacy are not necessarily the same thing.

That explains the extraordinary sensitivity surrounding Khan’s movements, prison access and medical treatment.

Khan has multiple cases and convictions, meaning that winning or suspending one case does not automatically free him. The state can continue to rely on other proceedings to keep him incarcerated.

But politics can move faster than courts.

If negotiations emerge between PTI and the establishment, if courts provide broader relief, or if the political cost of keeping Khan imprisoned becomes greater than the cost of releasing him, the calculation could change.

For now, however, the government’s behaviour suggests that it sees Khan’s release as a political risk rather than merely a legal decision.

For India, an unstable Pakistan is never a comfortable development.

A Pakistan consumed by an internal power struggle has less political bandwidth for economic reform, regional engagement and sustained diplomacy with its neighbours. At the same time, political instability inside Pakistan can increase the temptation to use nationalism and India-related rhetoric as a means of consolidating domestic support.

The more important Indian interest is stability — a Pakistan where civilian institutions function, elections command credibility and the military does not remain the ultimate arbiter of political power.

Imran Khan’s imprisonment has not solved Pakistan’s political problem. It has exposed it.

The irony is that every attempt to push Khan out of politics appears to reinforce his centrality. His opponents may control the government, parliament and much of the state machinery. But as long as a jailed politician can remain the most powerful symbol of opposition, the question confronting Pakistan is not whether Imran Khan matters.

It is how long the system can continue to keep him behind bars without confronting the political forces that put him there.

Article from: https://theindianeye.com/2026/08/24/op-ed-why-pakistani-regime-is-afraid-of-imran-khan/

Pakistan’s muzzled judiciary suddenly finding its voice and giving Khan relief signals that there is more to this than meets the eye.

Pakistan’s top court ordered former Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan’s transfer to a private hospital amid concerns about his health. Khan, 73, who was ousted in 2022 and has been imprisoned since August 2023 on what are largely believed to be politically driven convictions, is reported to have lost significant vision in his right eye. Pakistan’s Supreme Court cited Khan’s fundamental right, while ordering the authorities to ensure his health and safety. A federal minister promised to implement the order in letter and spirit, while another said they will seek Khan’s treatment at a public hospital.

The 18th Amendment to Pakistan’s Constitution curtailed the role of the federal government. Khan is believed to be amenable to repealing it. (Photo credit: Reuters)

Khan’s arrest after falling out with the military establishment sparked unprecedented protests and attacks on military installations. His party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was stripped of its election symbol, the cricket bat, ahead of the 2024 election, and its candidates were forced to contest as independents. Yet, they emerged as the single- largest bloc in the country’s parliament and retained power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

The order in Khan’s favour following years of sweeping crackdown on PTI came against the backdrop of fresh talk about rethinking the 18th Constitutional Amendment, which was passed in 2010 to devolve greater powers to provinces. It left the federal government with only 48% of the national budget.

Reports suggested Pakistan’s powerful army chief Asim Munir, widely seen as a de facto ruler, has been unable to get his civilian allies in the government on board to scrap the amendment. The allies are not forthcoming, despite ganging up against Khan for their return to power with the military’s support. They expanded Munir’s powers through the 27th Constitutional Amendment to further marginalise Khan, who remains popular.

The 27th Amendment granted the army chief lifelong legal immunity and limited the Supreme Court’s independence. President Asif Ali Zardari, whose signature enshrined the amendment in Pakistan’s Constitution, is the main champion of the 18th Amendment. His Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has been among its main beneficiaries.

The PPP has ruled Sindh, the country’s second-largest province, for 18 years. It has expanded its patronage networks with greater fiscal space in a province whose capital, Karachi, is Pakistan’s economic engine.

The Sharifs, Zardari’s rivals-turned-allies, were also pleased to see the back of Khan as he wrested power from them in the political heartland of Punjab in 2018. The Sharifs invested heavily in infrastructure, with a network of motorways a visible symbol of their developmental politics.

The 18th Amendment is critical to the Sharifs in Punjab, where Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, Maryam, is the chief minister. Maryam is being groomed for a bigger role, with Lahore’s infrastructure development as a model.

The civilian allies allowed the passage of the 27th Amendment without much debate, undermining the Supreme Court’s remit, weakening the check on executive power, and the essence of what they claim to champion—democracy. They elevated Munir to the post of chief of defence forces, in charge of the army, the navy, and the air force, and granted him lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution for short-term goals.

The military is now entrenched more than before. There is no guarantee that it will not fall back upon its musical chairs policy. Khan’s opponents accused the military of bringing him to power. Khan initially maintained he was on the same page with the military. Like Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, he later accused the military of forcing him out of power.

Khan’s falling out with the military followed a pattern since the 1960s, beginning with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was made military ruler Ayub Khan’s foreign minister at 35. As the PM, Bhutto chose Zia-ul-Haq as army chief, superseding seven generals. Bhutto was executed following a questionable trial after Zia deposed him in 1977.

In the 1980s, Zia mentored Sharif before the military cut short his first term as prime minister in 1993. Sharif chose Pervez Musharraf, superseding two officers. Musharraf would depose and jail Sharif.

Sharif accused army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa of pressuring the judiciary to convict him of corruption and disqualify him in 2017. Four years earlier, Sharif had come to power and appointed Bajwa, superseding four officers. Sharif accused Bajwa of installing Imran Khan. Khan then blamed Bajwa for his removal.

The Nawaz Sharif-led government’s inability to allocate more funds is believed to have been among the reasons for its falling out with Bajwa. The 18th Amendment left the federal government with fewer resources. Bajwa spoke publicly against it, equating it with Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s six points for greater autonomy before Pakistan split in 1971.

Imran Khan was the first PM elected since the 18th Amendment came into effect in 2015. He felt the financial pinch, with debt service taking roughly 30% of the federal budget. Defence spending was raised by 18% this year.

The 18th Amendment has curtailed the role of the federal government, which is effectively run by the military. Imran Khan is believed to be amenable to repealing it. The Supreme Court’s relief for Khan is significant in this context. It came months after the passage of the 27th Amendment, which greatly undermined the independence of the judiciary years after it clashed with Musharraf and forced him to step down. In 2019, the Supreme Court allowed a special court to try and convict Musharraf despite the military’s opposition. It suspended Bajwa’s extension, forcing Khan’s government to legislate. In 2012, the court ordered criminal proceedings against former army chief Aslam Beg and retired lieutenant general Asad Durrani for illegally financing a campaign to influence the 1990 election.

The 27th Amendment was a major blow to an occasionally assertive and activist judiciary. The muzzled judiciary suddenly finding its voice and giving Imran Khan relief signals that there is more to this than meets the eye.

The views expressed are personal

Article from: https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/the-riddle-of-judicial-relief-for-imran-khan-101787501914258-amp.html